The results of the latest Florida Insider poll are here, and the predictions look good for Rick Scott’s Senate campaign and Adam Putnam’s gubernatorial campaign. The comments, though, are often the most interesting part of these unscientific surveys.
The questions: Whom do you expect to win the U.S. Senate race? Whom do you expect to win the Democratic gubernatorial primary? Whom do you expect to win the Republican gubernatorial primary? Would a Patrick Murphy-David Jolly gubernatorial ticket be formidable? Whom do you expect to be the Republican attorney general nominee? Do you expect Richard Corcoran to serve in elective office again?
Richard, like most who walk away, will end up with true happiness and you can’t ever buy that.
I don’t see how Murphy-Jolly will get very far without raising money…Jolly won’t do it.
Moody in a runaway.
Putnam Win = Supreme Court Justice Corcoran….Take it to da bank!
I don’t believe the Justice rumor
Corcoran blew a huge opportunity by attempting to roll in the gutter with fringe elements on the right like Alex Jones and Roger Stone.
I bet Richard Corcoran will wait out Rubio to run for US Senate, in the future.
Rick Scott will beat Bill Nelson by at least 4 points. Floridians appreciate the economy and Rick will be the beneficiary of that. Putnam needs to step up his game or he faces losing to someone who has no business being Governor. Levine as the Dem nominee concerns me most as a Republican, as he really can appeal to business minded center-right voters. I think Corcoran did the right thing by bowing out. His endorsement of Adam is relatively meaningless but it was a good move.
Richard should be commended for putting his party before his own ambition. He’s proven once again that he’s always the politically smartest person in the room. I hope he’s not done with public service in some form.
DeSantis winning primary comes down to whether Trump issues a full endorsement.
Corcoran will stay in involved but more likely in an appointed position – believe at end of day Scott and Putnam could two of the few bright spots nationally for the GOP
I think you should expand on the question about a possible Murphy/jolly ticket. If they become the “nominee” of the dem party, then they are viable. No party affiliation and their chances drop exponentially…
Corcoran more likely to become a lobbyist, given his inability to attract electoral support.
Time for Corcoran to make some money and put those six kids through college.
Expect polling to start showing DeSantis wounded by the attacks against him on the illegal immigration issue. Whoever is behind it is spending a fortune online and on TV attacking DeSantis
Gonna be another transformative year. After the past two years Florida, like the nation, will never be the same.
Look for Corcoran to be appointed to the Florida Supreme Court by either Scott before he leaves office or Putnam after he enters the Govs office. Thee Justices will be forced to retire and Florida Legislature gave the Supremes a huge salary increase this past session.
Richard is very, very smart. And he loves politics. He will re-emerge. Perhaps as a Supreme Court Justice
Gillium has the inside track to win the Democrat nomination. The second wind, (FBI investigation) robust fundraising and lock on the black vote, his campaign is the one that will overtake the others given what I’m seeing from Tallahassee.
The AG race is wide open on the R side, according to polling. Corcoran is transactional, we’ll see him again!
I’m guessing. Putnam wins. Supreme Court (for Corcoran)
There is no greater demonstration of the danger caused by the human ego than the Murphy/Jolly fantasy. But I love a good train wreck so let it roll.
Patrick Murphy repeatedly demonstrated in 2016 that dad’s wealth can’t make up for a fake resume, complete lack of credibility, and total inability to get out of the way of a bad story – of which there were many, because he lied about owning a business that actually belonged to his father and embellished the work that business actually did, along with his professional credentials and just about everything else on his resume. David Jolly’s only supporters are internet Democrats who hate Republicans as much as he does. If these guys form some kind of alternate reality dream team, it will be proof of what can happen when candidates either don’t have anyone around them who can give good advice or they just refuse to listen to it.
What about Judge Mary Barzee-Florez taking on MDB – at the last minute! She will beat him despite the GOP leaning District? She has guts and is way smarter than MDB. That will be an interesting race!
Corcoran is young enough, he’ll be back at some point
Corcoran has to now realize that he’s not Trump. Even with the obnoxious policy positions and “transparency,” he just was not on the boob tube enough, and that means during the news cycles, and not with tv ads. I hope Putnam is wearing snake proof chaps! I still think there’s still at least 1 and maybe 2 more candidates that jump in with bank accounts.
Comments are required?!? My comment is that today was a pretty significant day for the Tallahassee in the know class who have been telling their clients for the last two years that Richard is definitely running. If anything today proves once again that politics is all about opportunity and timing.
Bill Nelson will not be able to match Rick Scott’s work ethic and will soon be retired. The race between Adam Putnam and Ron DeSantis will get so ugly they will likely open the door for the Democratic nominee, which should be Gwen Graham.
Ashley Moody now that Corcoran won’t join in on the AG race has clear path
Murphy/jolly depends on definition of formidable. It would have an impact, potentially substantial, but not probable to win. Also interested to see how Trump does or does not actively participate in Rep primary.
Some have said DeSantis is following Rick Scott’s playbook. He apparently hasn’t reached the chapter where it says to raise and spend real money.
Bill Nelson’s best chance is a run for Governor. He should pivot now before Scott pastes his face to the floor. At least Nelson would win his party’s normination. Better chance to win in the general than any other declared candidate in his party.
While I support Adam Putnam…I’m afraid he’s going to get “Jebbed.”
The cabinet races will be interesting to watch. The amount of money that it takes to get noticed is so much more than these campaigns ever have, so cash advantages really come to bear.
Gwen Graham is proving to be Patrick Murphy without the charisma (and that’s saying something.) Levine will win the nomination but only if Murphy himself doesn’t get in. Either way, there’s not a Dem in that clown car of a primary that can win the general election. “Blue Wave” or not.
Richard will end up as a Supreme Court justice.
Speaker Corcoran professes to be a conservative “true believer.” Yet when push comes to shove, the ideals he purports to believe become secondary to his political ambition.
When Corcoran compromised the truth, his credibility became irreversibly damaged. (IE: 2016 POTUS Primary, and allowing John Morgan to host a fundraiser for him…..as well as his endorsement in the (R) Gubernatorial primary). Corcoran was a very good Speaker for the most part, but sold out principle….”The Cause” for political expediency.
Either Adam Putnam or Ron DeSantis can win the primary. But Adam Putnam proved he can win state wide twice. He knows the state far better than his opponent. And he’s proven he can win by turning out large numbers of Republican voters even in the large blue counties. I predict Adam Putnam will win the primary and the general election.
Jolly and Murphy or Murphy and Jolly should call Congressman Crist. It’s a two party state. Independent statewide campaigns are futile.
Talent, yes, wasted upon Richard the Not Lion Hearted.
Where there is hubris, there is tragedy.
Murphy/Jolly ticket sounds good until all his issues are rehashed from the Rubio race. Game over!
I believe that if President Trump supports Ron DeSantis , he will be our next Governor.
Corcoran didn’t see an opening, so it was time to get out. But at least he went out on top as Speaker. I wouldn’t expect him to serve in elective office again…it’s time for him to make some serious coin for his family in the private sector. If he wants to play in politics, he should save some of that PAC money for the future. He still has great relationships with future speakers, so he will still hold some influence. … I’d expect DeSantis to get the nomination in the current environment. I think Bill Nelson squeaks out another win just because it’s likely to be a Democratic year. If it’s a Gwen Graham v. Ron DeSantis battle, it’s possible that DeSantis is just a little too far to the right to lose in a bad year for Republicans, which many are expecting this to be. …Murphy-Jolly is a non-starter if it’s done as a third party candidacy. The money won’t line up. Yes, Charlie Crist was able to get 30% in 2010 an an NPA but he had a lot of coin leftover from when he was running as a Republican. If Murphy filed to run as a Democrat, he might win the primary though…and then he could stall on Jolly as the legal matters surrounding an LG from the other party are worked out. …Ashley Moody will be the next attorney general from Florida. That’s a done deal.
Desantis is nowhere and seems to have no respect for Floridians as he keeps campaigning from Fox’s studios. Thats a Washington insider in my book. Floridians deserve a governor that knows the difference between yeti and igloo or typhoon lagoon and volcano bay.
Murphy-Jolly would be formidable in the Dem primary. Not the general election.
Tough prediction in the GOP Governor race. The primary electorate will probably go where Trump has told them to go, but Adam Putnam is prepared for the attack shouldn’t be underestimated.
Beware of John Morgan running in the last second as an Independent and shaking up the Gubernatorial race.
Rick Scott has mounted an early and aggressive campaign against Bill Nelson and Nelson hasn’t had a real campaign in years. Scott is the most formidable candidate he has ever faced and Scott will outwork him to victory.
U.S. Senate – Rick Scott has already turned on his mega machine. He has a lot of great points from his administration that he can point to as successes. Nelson certainly has a lot of failings that can be pointed out. I’d expect this one to get really ugly really quickly. But Scott no longer has his turnout man, it’ll be interesting to see how his consultants try to pick up that slack.
Dem Gov. Nominee – I’m still trying to figure out who Chris King is. Bill Grahams daughter continues to be boring, despite her objections. (In my minds eye I see her saying “I’m not boring, I’m not boring, I’m not boring!” while a gif of trigglypuff (look it up) plays in my mind. Andrew Gillum has somehow pulled himself half way out of the grave, but he’s also still half in the grave. Philip Levine continues to build his machine, slower than I expected, but its building nonetheless. Levine, should continue to plod ahead and take the race.
Rep. Gov. Nominee – The best thing that ever could have happened for DeSantis was for Corcoran to not run. Putnam will now be painted as a moderate, a career politician, and part of the establishment problem in government. Now that Corcoran is out, it should free up some of the hard right money that’s been on standby. Putnam has a large money lead, but that only gets you so far when your opponent is constantly on cable tv and has a better message for conservatives. Desnatis for the win.
Murphy/Jolly – This combination would absolutely wreak havoc on the Florida political landscape. If you have a HARD right DeSantis v a HARD left Levine, suddenly a bipartisan middle of the road ticket looks really attractive to a lot of people.
Rep. A.G. – Moody is clear to walk away with it now. Fant and White started off hot and have already seen their fire burn out. Fants team made some massive comms errors that made him look flat out crazy, and his burn rate is to high to sustain with lackluster fundraising. Time to pack it up and call it a day.
Corcoran – The Speaker may not serve in elected office again, but he will continue to wield power and influence in Florida for years to come. I don’t think it will be long before we start seeing his name in news again on some of these Constitutional Amendments.
Watching Speaker Corcoran for the past two years was like watching the Game of Thrones… we were all expecting something to happen, a shocker, jaw dropper and when we didn’t think it could happen again it did! He needs the elective stage.
Levine wins the primary bit the democrat who can win the mansion is Chris King. The “blue wave” is just enough to save Nelson by one point. Murphy/Jolly is a joke. They were both losers in Congress and they would be destroyed as democrats…maybe enough that Nelson would likely lose with them on the Dem ticket.
maybe Richard realized how expensive a family is. if so, good for him.
The “Blue Wave” is a farce
Corcoran’s future is still bright. He’s built a lot of goodwill in Pasco County over the years. He could be a partner in a law firm and/or be tapped for a judgeship. Elected office options include Lt. Governor on the ticket w/ Putnam (which probably won’t happen), or a surprise run for AG. There’s always an outside chance he runs for State Senate or Congress down the road.
Murphy and Jolly would be formidable if they could get the democrat nomination however they could not get past the primary and as a result cannot win the general.
A gop sweep
Quite a year – no blue wave but a blue ripple!
It’s fortunate, but still consistently pathetic, that the Florida Democrats can’t field a viable general election candidate for Governor.
I think dispite his denials I he may end on the Florida Supreme Court.
RC has only ever really worked in the political process. Previously ran two other times. I expect him to run again.
RC is a creature of inside baseball in the capitol. Like many, many Speakers and Senate Pres before him, nobody outside of the Capitol to Clydes Corridor has a clue who they are. And lame duckism strikes hard and fast and ruthlessly in Tallahassee and leaves the unaware (which still amazes me cuz all these guys think they are different and special) asking, “Whatchu talking’ about, Willis?” RC may still not be fully aware of what happened.
The greatest service Patrick Murphy could ever do for Floridians is run for office as an independent, because it would guarantee a Republican governor for another four years.
The public seems completely disengaged from the August elections. I see no real signs of a mass Blue Wave as predicted(rallies, enthusiasm FOR a cause, etc.), and therefore the scales tip back to the Republicans who turn out better in off-cycle elections. Maybe someone will catch fire, but the general public seems disengaged from politics.
Once you’ve been in office it’s really hard to remain on the sidelines especially if you’ve been a leader of a caucus
His ego will control his future as it has his past. Whatever he does he will perceive it to be extremely powerful.
Scott’s ceiling has always been 51-52%. He could win another very close race unless Nelson goes nuclear and runs a full scale negative campaign. The Murphy-Jolly idea is a novelty. Jolly couldn’t qualify as the LG candidate for the D’s without changing parties. The down ticket Cabinet races will go down to the last weekend. Moody most likely wins on the strength of her Tampa Bay base.
Corcoran might be angling for a Supreme Court spot. May be why he increased pay and removed requirement to live in Tallahassee.
The choice between Nelson and Scott is so depressing. It’s having to chose between “Bad” and “Worse”.
It’s in his blood. He’ll have a very tough time leaving politics after so many years of controlling the process. Whatever he does, he will probably control whatever political issues or campaigns that are associated with the firm he joins.
DeSantis was surging, but as we’ve seen in West Virginia (Blankenship) and in Alabama (Strange) being simply “the Trump candidate” doesn’t work. You need more than that. And so far, DeSantis hasn’t shown that he’s anything more than the guy that Trump endorsed.
“Corcoran will slide into the AG race and will immediately dominate the field. He is will emerge as the front runner to run for Governor in four or eight years….Phil Levine’s failed run for governor will go down in history as th most expensive ego masturbation since Ross Perot. He may emerge from the primary but anyon as crazy liberal as Phil has no chance in a statewide general, even with Trump dragging the R down….Democrats still have plenty of time to remind everyone why they have been a failure for the past two decades. And they won’t disappoint
I have no doubt that Richard Corcoran will once again serve the state as either an elected official or as an appointed judge!
it is going to get very interesting to see how much, and how, the national scene resonates in Florida
Corcoran now a likely contender for a Supreme Court vacancy.
Formidable is the key…I do expect Murphy/Jolly to impact the race. They are not formidable but will draw enough attention to help decide the race. It will be based upon the public positions they advance.
Disgusted in seeing negative television ads right out of the box in the republican primary.
Would be very surprised if Corcoran does not run for office again
Levine’s ongoing paid media efforts, his record, and strong Dem base will propel him into the general. As for Putnam, he’ll need to bank his votes early and often, and before another presidential tweet manifests. As long as Jay Fant keeps ducking the media by not providing any on-the-record answers on issues like felon voting restoration and recorded interrogations, Ashley Moody will continue to win the day by walking the walk and talking the talk.
The Democratic Party has golden ticket and they’re going to screw it up. Again. Because it’s all they do.
Bill Nelson seems lost and acts like he has a tiger by the tail (Gov. Scott)!!!!
David Jolly for statewide office is a publicity stunt. Jolly is a horrible fundraiser to begin with, has isolated himself from the GOP donor base and would take votes from Dems who won’t give him any money.
What did all the Corcoran donors get for their money?????
You should have included Murphy in your Dem Guv poll question. …The bipartisan gubernatorial ticket running together as team on one party line has successfully worked in recent years in Alaska, Montana, Kansas
Rick Scott is focusing on Hispanics way before Nelson is. He did this in 2014. He is Traveling to Puerto Rico, getting close to Venezuelans, Cubans and Colombians. Nelson can not ignore our Latino community and should have messages in English and Spanish. Commercials in both languages. He can not only depend on the Dixiecrats
Neither Scott nor Nelson are great candidates per se, but Scott knows how to win a bruising campaign, which Nelson has generally not had to do….I’m telling my friends that the R Gov primary is a fascinating political experiment, and at this point believe DeSantis’ Fox-News-centric strategy trumps the more traditional campaign Putnam is running….On the D side…I don’t know. Nobody has caught fire. Levine has money. A Murphy-Jolly ticket would be interesting, and in a 3-way with DeSantis and, say, Gillum could be really interesting. But I can’t imagine Ds saying, sure, take over our party with a bipartisan ticket….Moody probably is the logical AG choice, and I’ve been amazed at how Jay Fant has branded himself as the uber-right winger given his country club background, but given the political winds, I’m betting on the extreme candidates being the victors on the R side.
The toughest task any candidate has, especially in contested primaries, is getting a compelling message through to an electorate that is largely disengaged from politics
Corcoran could pursue a State Senate seat in the future, not merely statewide office.
Florida remains a very red state. Democrats have yet to articulate a message that will resonate with voters.
As for the senate, Nelson has been around forever in the era of anti-politics. He has faced three of the weakest Republican candidates imaginable: Bill McCollum, Katherine Harris and Connie Mack the III. Nelson’s luck has run out.
As for Governor, the Democrats have a problem. They have four candidates, but none that the public is clamoring for. Graham’s numbers have fallen from 18% support after announcing to 9% now. Not exactly the trajectory a candidate wants.
Gillum is the darling of the Progressives, but of few others. King is the antithesis of Norm Petersen; no one knows his name. Levine is the favorite at the moment, but I don’t see him sustaining and expanding his support. The leading Democrat is I Don’t Know and I Don’t Care.
The battle between Putnam and DeSantis is the most interesting. Putnam is the Bill Nelson of the Republican Party. He is not as old as Nelson, but both seem to have been around forever. That’s not good when voters are looking for the new face.
DeSantis is the new face and is the favorite of conservative activists who dominate the primaries. His fate depends on Trump. If Trump’s ratings rise, so will DeSantis’ fortunes. If Trump’s ratings fall, so will DeSantis.
As for Murphy and Jolly, the only ones who support that ticket are people who do not vote. Take two losing candidates and what do you get: a big loser.
I think Floridians are aware of, understand and appreciate Bill Nelson’s lifelong dedication and commitment to Florida’s residents, businesses and natural resources.
I may change my mind again on the Senate race as up until recently I thought Bill Nelson would hand on. But I am beginning to think that Scott’s luck will hold up as the expected Democratic blue wave may have already peaked during special election season. In addition Scott will use his tried and true strategy of spending money and running an aggressive campaign – this time hammering Nelson for being a do nothing, career politician. I think DeSantis will ride the Trump wave and free FOX News media exposure to the GOP nomination – although Putnam will be competitive and may surprise me. I think Graham will win the 4-way race for the Democratic nomination as the other three candidates divide up the more progressive base and she solidifies the more moderate Democrats. It would not shock me if Corcoran ran for Congress at some point in the future.
Putnam and Graham are the Jeb Bushes of the 2018 cycle: earnest, well-funded, and beloved by the establishment. And like Jeb Bush they’re about to get rolled by the inmates who have now taken over the asylum. That leaves Levine and DeSantis, and of the two Levine is the current over performer. If he can surf a blue wave in November he could secure an improbable victory of almost Trumpian proportions.
I’m sure Governor Bill McCollum could best answer how significant the Richard Corcoran endorsement is to Adam Putnam’s gubernatorial campaign. That said, this is still Putnam’s nomination to lose. Meanwhile, while the political press is trying to out-hype each other daily on the impending end of Senator Nelson’s career, special election after special election across the country seem to indicate an approaching blue wave. Does that mean that no matter how many “He raised this much!” fundraising stories the press churns out about Governor Scott, he gets drowned by a wave? It is hard to imagine him, a guy who barely won in a red wave, somehow bucking a nationwide trend.
King may surprise us. Very well qualified
Certainly a mighty boost to Adam Putnam for governor with endorse by Speaker Corcoran. The Putnam vs Rep. DeSantis contest is close, but can the congressman win the GOP primary for governor mainly by appearing as a talking head on the Fox News Channel from Washington?
What is with Andrew’s over the top negative campaign he is running? Comes off as desperate.
Gillum benefits most from Murphy/Jolly entry by further splitting S FL white vote
If Murphy runs for Governor all bets are off. If he doesn’t then Levine will be the Democratic nominee because he will have the most money and is running the best campaign in that race. Nelson will be saved by the Democratic wave.
A Murphy/Jolly ticket would be interesting and formidable. bipartisanship is coming back in vogue and their candidacy would tap into a growing sentiment of people who feel less connected or loyal to one party or another.
Anyone writing off Andrew Gillum right now has never been in a room with him and a crowd of Dem primary voters. They love him. He loves them.
I see a Cannon Bldg office address in Corcoran’s future.
He’s addicted to the perception of power that he only gets from being elected.
A Murphy Jolly ticket is exactly what we need to mix up the democratic primary and our best chance to win in November. Voters are tired of politics as usual and are looking for leaders that will get out of their partisan corners to find solutions to the challenges facing our state. Run, Patrick, run!
Glad that Corcoran is leaving but I bet we have not seen the last of him
Corcoran’s move this week was a bow to political reality and smart for his long term interests.
I’ve consistently been choosing DeSantis because he’s doing the FoxTrump.
Interesting all the money Lavine is spending and the negatives Gillum is running and Graham is holding pretty firm
How is it only May? It feels like this cycle started 5 years ago.
Richard Corcoran’s dog-whistle not-campaign will prove to have been the biggest waste of money since Bitcoin.
Nelson will benefit from the environment! In terms of Levine, as many say, an object in motion stays in motion! Right now, Levine is the one moving forward.
I believe from a data perspective Democrats will have a easier time winning the Governors mansion than keeping our Senate seat. I think we can win both but the Governors race will have a lot more fluidity to it.
I think Corcoran has made a deal with Putnam for the LG position. Corcoran loves power, and rarely does anything without motive.
The bi-partisan draw of the Murphy-Jolly duo will dissipate shortly after the political season kicks into high gear late summer. Neither one of them are high enough profile to be be looked at as anything less than a gimmick to stay relevant.
Patrick Murphy would soon be exposed as a minor figure lacking policy depth, while Jolly has abandoned all pretenses of actually being Republican. The “bipartisan” appeal of the ticket would lose luster quickly.
The Blue Wave is going to wash over every Democrat in Florida except Bill Nelson.
Can you say Justice Corcoran?
Polls and predictions of a blue wave are premature in May.
Corcoran will be viable for Attorney General for 2022 election
In the ultimate irony, Corcoran will become a lobbyist, joining his brothers firm….
Who wins the US senate race will depend entirely on how well Donald Trump is doing at the time of voting. Scott has run behind in his two races for Governor, and needed a Republican tailwind. This time, I think he’s a point or two ahead, and Nelson needs the tailwind …I think Graham wins the Democratic Primary, but it could be Levine….Murphy/Jolly is very formidable now, but will lose votes as we get closer to the election
Most interesting question at this time is whether Graham shoots back at Gillum. He is an easy target, but third parties might benefit more.
If Murphy gets in the race for Governor, look for him to be formidable. He has residual statewide name ID from his race with Rubio and the ability to raise money quickly.
Can you say Justice Cochran of the Florida Supreme Court.
Gillum’s Campaign is underrated.
The republican gubernatorial primary may be the defining moment for the fall elections. How far right will DeSantis move the party? With no primary, Scott has to watch.
Richard Corcoran sold his soul for Trump and didn’t even get a T-shirt to show for it. Pathetic.
Phillip Levine is addressing all the hot issues and expresses them in a manner that appeal to both sides of the great divide.
Governor Scott with his formidable bankroll and ability to stay on message means he will have the resources necessary to win. Senator Nelson, to win, will need to broaden his closed circle of friends.
No, but he (Corcoran) will try to get a high level appointment
Ends up on Fox TV Reality Show
DeSantis has an edge in the primary with Corcoran out of the way.
Murphy getting in would make it four guys versus one woman, in a primary where 60% of the votes come from women. It is pretty obvious who that helps….If Murphy and Jolly run as independents, they guarantee Putnam wins.
Levine is going to breakaway from the field in mid July
King is the one to watch. Starting to make his move.
Corcoran out of public life may just be wishful thinking, but one can have hope—or at least I don’t think the legislature took hope away.
We need more moderates.
Speaker Corcoran learned that being Speaker means nothing outside of the Tallahassee bubble. He can, however, go back home and win a Congressional seat when the seats are redrawn in 2022.
The center will return to Florida politics this year.
The skill set for a Speaker requires 41 votes, every higher office require tens of thousands, Corcoran does not possess retail political skills.
Nelson has all the assets needed to win — goodwill among the party base, a record of accomplishment, and an opponent who is nakedly political almost all the time — but he needs to start fighting.
If Corcoran already had a name ID problem after spending millions, I struggle to envision a line of work that makes him decent money while maintaining (really, increasing) his politically relevance and visibility for a future run.
Frankly the Democratic nominee is much too up in the air to have a good idea who will win.
I was actually surprised Corcoran dropped out but I’m sure he was made aware that at sessions end, he was less than viable statewide. It’s going to be an interesting general election indeed. Oh yeah, Rick Scott’s spot pushing for term limits might have resonated, if he weren’t in it. God awful.
Jeff Greene most likely to run
Trump will make these challenging races for good or for ill.
The Rick Scott train will finally fall off the tracks and Bill Nelson will win by the skin of his teeth because the energy level of Democrats is higher in this cycle unlike every other midterm…..Gwen Graham will eventually gain a pulse and catch on and will benefit by being the only woman vs her three male opponents who will knock each other out of contention…. The Patrick Murphy and David Jolly Show sounds interesting but the legal ramifications and state law requiring candidates running as major party candidates to be a member of that party one year in advance of qualifying will prevent Republican Jolly from running on a Democratic Party ticket with Democrat Murphy. Plus with every other candidate currently running for the last year and raising money too, I fail to see where they get the $50 million dollars to run a statewide campaign….Ashley Moody has benefitted by having the current AG incumbent Pam Bondi bless and endorse her candidacy from day one and all the major incumbent Republican officeholders and sheriffs statewide have jumped on the Moody bandwagon almost insuring her victory in the Republican primary….Every “pundit” around has already ensured a Richard Corcoran rebirth but I don’t see it primarily because he was probably the most polarizing figure to inhabit Tallahasee in the last two decades and, to his demise, he stepped on too many toes on both sides of the isle with his draconian policys and views on education and healthcare that effect every Floridian. That Trumpian philosophy and way of doing things is quickly going out of favor.
A crazy year gives Dems a chance
Would be good to ask about congressional races such as Districts 26 and 27.
Putnam is politically sophisticated enough to thread the very tricky needle of a Republican party that is still divided and has mixed feelings about Trump, even if that division has not manifested itself so publicly yet this year. Ron DeSantis has gone all in on Trump, that will be his undoing.
Scott will have to tack closer to Trump to gin up base enthusiasm, and that will help Nelson survive, eapecially in what looks like a wave year.
Andrew Gillum is clearly not going to be the Democratic nominee for governor. He has at best been polling in 3rd place and recently fell into 4th. His campaign’s repeated mistakes have damaged his reputation and its pretty clear he couldn’t even win Mayor of Tallahassee at this point.
Rick Scott’s personal money will once again pull him across the finish line.
Corcoran has learned the same lesson as others before him, from Ander Crenshaw through Johnnie Byrd, Haridopolos and many more. Being the god of Apalachee Parkway doesn’t mean you have the same stature outside of Tallahassee, once your term as president or speaker is over. But I don’t think he wants to be through with politics. Rubio was an exception because of his rhetorical eloquence, personal history and Cuban ancestry, and because he was running against Charlie Crist, who had angered his party. Corcoran’s likely path would be a state Senate seat or congressional run some time in the future — a race where his local stature would be decisive…. picked Levine and Putnam in the primaries, at the moment I find them both very unpredictable.
Rick Scott’s media so far has been brilliant, and then throw in third-party attack ads and he will give Nelson more than he can handle, I fear.
The Democratic Primary is flat and wide open. A perfect opportunity for a well funded new entry — stay tuned! Corcoran’s move clears the right wing lane for DeSantis to upset Putnam in the GOP Primary.
The Republican primary for Governor will be a money contest with Putnam courting Florida based corporate & special interests vs DeSantis courting Sheldon Adleson, Foster Fries, the Mercers and friends. …The Democratic primary for Governor –especially if Patrick Murphy and/or Jeff Greene–get in will be a race to see who can get 25%….The only guaranteed winner will be the broadcasters & cable networks.
Richard Corcoran’s elected political career is over. His lobbying/behind the scenes political career is just beginning.
Will the “Blue Wave” actually be a “Red Ripple”?
NPA/O—If Putnam is elected governor then I suspect we will call the Speaker, Justice Corcoran. …In the Democratic primary, Levine makes a great case, he’s got a newness to him, and he’s not an elitist, boring, professorial liberal. Plus, he brings his own money to the race and has surrounded himself with top-flite political pros. That’s why I give him the edge. But watch out on the left if Gillum does something to get attention and can use it to raise his name recognition.
The month’s 211 Florida Insiders included 116 Republicans, 79 Democrats, and 16 others. They were:
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